Scientists have revealed who they believe is most likely to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup — and the results may surprise football fans. With the tournament set to kick off across the United States, Canada and Mexico in just days, researchers have used artificial intelligence and advanced statistical modelling to calculate the chances of all 48 participating nations lifting football's most coveted trophy.
The findings, produced by a team of experts from the University of Innsbruck and TU Dortmund University, place Spain as the tournament favourite with a 14.5 percent chance of winning the World Cup. England and France are tied close behind on 12.4 percent, while Germany follows with an 11.2 percent chance. The researchers analysed a vast range of data, including results from previous international matches, bookmaker odds, player ratings and squad market values before feeding the information into a machine-learning model designed to simulate the entire tournament thousands of times.
According to the model, Portugal and defending world champions Argentina remain firmly in contention, with chances of 8.9 percent and 8.2 percent respectively. The Netherlands, Brazil and Belgium complete the group of major contenders. Researchers stressed that while Spain currently tops the rankings, the race for the title remains unusually open.
"Compared to previous tournaments, this year's title race is very tight," co-author Achim Zeileis said. The scientists also highlighted an important caveat: even the tournament favourite has less than a one-in-six chance of actually winning the World Cup. "The probability that the top favourite will actually win the tournament is usually no more than 20 percent," researcher Andreas Groll explained.
At the opposite end of the rankings, Jordan was identified as the least likely nation to lift the trophy, followed by Qatar, Iraq, South Africa and Curaçao. Despite the sophisticated modelling, researchers acknowledged that football remains one of the world's most unpredictable sports and that major upsets are still possible.
The team behind the study has a strong forecasting record from previous international tournaments, but they admit that the beauty of the World Cup lies in its ability to defy expectations. For now, however, the numbers suggest Spain will arrive at the tournament as the team to beat, while England, France and Germany remain within striking distance in what scientists are calling one of the most competitive World Cup races in recent history.